I freaking love statistics. Seriously. I’m not being sarcastic even though you can’t really tell via text. But I really do love statistics. However, I’m not a statistician (despite earning a 98 in my 5:30pm Statistics class freshman year of college). I’m no softie either. As much as I love Ethan Hawke, he isn’t winning Best Supporting Actor and despite my Wes Anderson feelings he isn’t winning Best Director. No, I make Oscar predictions based on an equal amount of research and love. So that being said, here are my Oscar predictions. (If you want statistical-based predictions, visit fivethirtyeight)
I’ve seen all of the nominees in this category. Some I watched over 6 months ago in the theater and 5 times since (Boyhood), some I watched with family over winter break (Selma), some I watched alone late at night (The Grand Budapest Hotel, Whiplash), a few I watched with friends (Birdman, The Imitation Game), some took me three times to get through (American Sniper) and some I watched last night (The Theory of Everything). They are all great movies and fantastic pieces of art which should not really be compared in any way. What’s “best” is subjective and these films are all so different that it’s difficult to name just one. But Boyhood is the actual Best.
Best Director: Richard Linklater (see above and for all of the reasons HERE)
The Theory of Everything was the last Best Picture nominee that I watched. But it was fantastic. Eddie Redmayne was amazing with the physical parts of the role. He perfected the nuances and honestly I spent a lot of the movie wondering how he did it. And that genuine smile didn’t hurt.
I waited as long as possible to watch Still Alice (like the morning of the Oscars). It was one of those movies that I didn’t have a real desire to watch. That being said, I loved it. Julianne Moore was fantastic. It was beautiful and tragic and wonderful. It was hard to watch and I couldn’t stop. She made it that way and if I ever see her I’ll say thank you!
Best Supporting Actor
Nothing about Whiplash was boring. In fact, I was tense the whole time I watched it. When will he be nice? Has he changed? Oh wait, he just threw that cymbal at someone’s head. Ok, yeah he’s crazy. J.K. Simmons made me hate him, which is so difficult to do.
Best Supporting Actress
I appreciate my mom. When we’re kids we don’t even realize that our parents have lives let alone struggles and difficulties. But that’s what Boyhood is about. As Mason grows up, he starts to see more of what makes his parents people. His mom makes mistakes. His dad has a whole different life. Patricia Arquette is fantastic in Boyhood. There’s nothing else to say. She’s funny and annoying and brilliant and strong and everything we all would want in a mother. Does she make “poor life decisions keeping [them] on the brink of poverty”? Y.E.S. But that doesn’t make her a bad mom, it makes her a person.
The rest of my predictions…
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Editing: Boyhood
Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Sound Editing & Mixing: American Sniper
Best Score: The Theory of Everything
Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Hair/Make-Up: Guardians of the Galaxy
Special Effects: Planet of the Apes
I’d like to thank the Academy…